Zogby: Mccain Moves Into Lead 48-47 In One Day Polling

News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Sat Nov 1, 2008 12:59 AM EDT

Article Source: Drudge Report

politics, obama, mccain, decision-08, polls, election-08, candidates, zogby

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

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{"commentId":3814801,"authorDomain":"jwallner"}

wilder5121

Zogby. LOL.

I love the smell of desperate incompetent republican sweat in the evening.

It smells like...victory.

{"commentId":3814801,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"jwallner"}

1 vote

#1 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:20 AM EDT

{"commentId":3814821,"authorDomain":"maria-kirchner"}

Maria Kirchner

I think this article is so dumb and wrong.I just looked up the Zogby polling and they still have Obama ahead by 7 points-Nice try.

{"commentId":3814821,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"maria-kirchner"}

1 vote

#2 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:23 AM EDT

{"commentId":3815150,"authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}

W Scott Lincoln

Zogby is still officially at +7 because they havent released their new tracker yet that includes this one day's worth of data that is linked to above.

{"commentId":3815150,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}

#2.1 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:57 AM EDT

{"commentId":3814844,"authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}

W Scott Lincoln

So not only are they going crazy over each individual national poll that moves towards McCain, now they are going crazy over a individual polling day sample that is used in the 3-5 day averages. So because a sample that shows that a few hundred people have it tied up, that now matters and somehow applies to the electoral college.

{"commentId":3814844,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}

#3 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:25 AM EDT

{"commentId":3814905,"authorDomain":"retiredtoflorida"}

retired to florida

Whew, you had my heart racing, hands shaking and ready to call 911 - until I read Dredge!"

What? Wanna give an old woman a massive coronary? Come 'ere you... ;)

{"commentId":3814905,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"retiredtoflorida"}

2 votes

#4 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:30 AM EDT

{"commentId":3814930,"authorDomain":"ludmila"}

Ludmila

Zogby is both phony and funny ... as well as pathetic.

{"commentId":3814930,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"ludmila"}

#5 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:33 AM EDT

{"commentId":3814986,"authorDomain":"phillyinthe323"}

Phillyinthe310

I trust this as much as i trust FOX NEWS in a room alone with my candidate

{"commentId":3814986,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"phillyinthe323"}

1 vote

#6 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:38 AM EDT

{"commentId":3815137,"authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}

W Scott Lincoln

FYI, for those of you who actually feel like trusting this article:

About 130,000,000 million voters are expected to participate in the upcoming election.

The sample size of the above single day of the tracking poll is only 400 voters.

This yields a margin of error of about 5%

This means that McCain's support is actually anywhere from 43-53%, and Obama's is anywhere from 42-52%, at a confidence of 95%. This really doesn't change much, since all of the big poll averaging sites give each candidate support that is within those margins.

Before I hold my breath, I'll wait until a similar result shows up in more than one or two of the national trackers, over the course of more than just one day, and has a margin of error that actually means something more definitive.

{"commentId":3815137,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}

#7 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 1:55 AM EDT

{"commentId":3815436,"authorDomain":"dnhunter"}

Dave Hunter

And now for something completely different, reality!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/

http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553

{"commentId":3815436,"threadId":"405855","contentId":"2061409","authorDomain":"dnhunter"}

#8 - Sat Nov 1, 2008 2:37 AM EDT

{"commentId":3831279,"authorDomain":"slincoln-wx"}